March 2011
To be honest, the new papers on the web are really just a piece of an old paper and one new paper, but it's a start. Catherine Hood Consulting began 2011 with a new file cabinet, and as a result, Catherine and staff were finally able to unpack the last boxes of papers and notes. This has led to the finding of several interesting notes and pieces of scrapbook fodder. More importantly, it has also led to the creation of new slides for the X-13 course and to resurrecting the notes for a book that Kathy McDonald-Johnson and I were working on before I left the Census Bureau.
Kathy and I started this book back in 2004 and signed a contract with Springer. Unfortunately, due to problems at the Census Bureau, Kathy and I weren't allowed to finish the book. The book is titled Diagnostics for Seasonal Adjustment and Time Series Modeling, and it has been listed on Amazon now for five years. (I still get emails asking when the book will be finished.) Now you will be able to track my progress, and I will post large sections of the "book" on-line for comments/questions. I've posted a preliminary outline on a "Case Studies" Project page.
The first two pieces are related to residual trading day effects. These residual effects can be especially disturbing if we have already specified a regression effect in the model. I have posted an update to the "Getting Started" paper that deals specifically to the spectral diagnostics, and a brief case study paper on fixing residual trading day effects.
Blogs are not new to me, though I tend to write more on my personal blog than I write on my blog for Catherine Hood Consulting. Lately I have been blogging more on all my blogs, and I've also started a Facebook page for Catherine Hood Consulting. You can find the blog at "Seasonally Adjusting my Life." The Facebook page will give me a chance to share when there is new content on the web site and new seasonal adjustment blog posts.
Though the Census Bureau had announced the release of X-13-ARIMA-SEATS at the end of 2010, documentation issues have held up the release. However, I have a beta copy of the program, and I'm excited to be teaching X-13 this month. Once X-13 is released, I will add links for the new program on the web site.
Though it's difficult for me to confess, I learned something new this year about an American holiday that is celebrated quite seriously by the German-Americans in Pennsylvania (where my roots lie). For as long as I can remember, I've spent every February 2 looking at the sky and calculating the end of winter. However, I didn't figure out until this year that Groundhog Day and Candlemas are always on the same day, and that Groundhog Day came into being because of Candlemas. Candlemas celebrates the day when Jesus was presented at the Temple, 40 days after His birth, and it marks the end of the Christmas/Epiphany season. As much time as I spend trying to estimate various holidays, it came as a shock to me to learn that Groundhog Day is actually a Christmas-related holiday and that I hadn't realized it until this year.
In March this year, we begin our Easter-related holidays: Fat Tuesday on March 8 and Ash Wednesday on March 9. March 17 is St. Patrick's Day, so it's no surprise at all that March is also Irish-American History Month. It's also National Umbrella Month, which seems strange to me because I thought that April showers brought the May flowers, though March does contain the Spring Equinox. March is also National Women's History Month, Music in our Schools Month, International Listening Month, and Caffeine Awareness Month.
Comments and suggestions are welcome. Please email "info" at catherinechhood.net with your ideas.
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