June 2011
Roxanne and I have been working on a paper for the 2011 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association based on software we are writing to make user-defined regressors easier to use in X-12. Our research involves using time series from several different sectors to demonstrate the value of seasonal adjustments that include custom holiday and trading day regressors. In particular, we have researched using a one-coefficient trading day model for some very short time series. We also are looking at the various Easter-related holidays in some European series. A draft of the paper will be available on the web site in August. I have no projection on when the software will be available, but probably not until 2012.
Another interesting research project involves looking at how much rounding error could affect the seasonal adjustments in the US Construction series from the Census Bureau. With the Housing Starts and the New Homes Sold numbers at such a low level for such an extended time, I have been concerned with the amount of error that I can generate simply because the published numbers are rounded. I realized recently that this research might be interesting to more people than me alone, so I am now working on a paper that explains my results. This paper might be done in July, but if not, then I will have it on the web in either August or September.
Documentation issues are still holding up the release of X-13-ARIMA-SEATS. In the meantime, I am still working on new courses and using the new program some in my current short courses. Once X-13 is released, I will add links for the new program on the web site.
This past quarter saw the final days of my teaching both AP Calculus BC and AP Statistics, high school graduation for my oldest child and subsequent college orientation, and a college tour for my middle child who starts her senior year of high school in just a few weeks. I hope that you all will bear with me as I work to catch up on my extracurricular research projects as outlined above and on the case studies and diagnostics papers.
Though it's bordering on cruel to tell you fun facts for a month that is almost over, I will share with you that June 28 is Paul Bunyan Day. This year I was privileged to spend Paul Bunyan Day in the fine state of Minnesota, where Paul's handiwork is quite evident. Being in Minnesota this week, it's also interesting to note that National Mosquito Control Awareness Week began on Sunday, June 26. When I was young, my dad used to joke that the mosquito was the state bird of Minnesota. The mosquitoes certainly do seem to thrive here.
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