Catherine Hood Consulting

Welcome to the third quarter 2011 newsletter from Catherine Hood Consulting.

Research Projects and Software

We have posted on the site our latest paper, presented at the 2011 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association. Roxanne and I wrote this paper based on software we are working on to make user-defined regressors easier to use in X-12. We demonstrate the new software and the value of seasonal adjustments that include custom holiday and trading day regressors. The paper is available here as a PDF file.

We have no exact date on when the software will be available on the web site, but we will probably have a beta version available in 2012.

Future New Office Space

Catherine Hood Consulting is looking for new office space in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Once we've moved, we will have not only a new address, but also new telephone and FAX numbers. We'll be sending out "change of address" emails and letters as soon as we have closed the deal.

Notes on the US Economy

Many people ask me if the U.S. will be coming out of this recession anytime soon. I am not an economist and not an expert on recessions in any way. However, I do have a lot of experience with economic indicators and with statistical graphs. I look at economic indicators every month, and as the old adage says, a picture is worth a thousand words.

You can see in the graphs the housing slump, corresponding to a recession, in the early 1990s. I've also highlighted the more recent years, starting in 2008. You can see that this latest drop is completely unprecidented and not showing any signs of recovery.

Other construction series show similar patterns, including US Building Permits, New Homes Sold, and Existing Homes Sold.

Fun facts for October

October is National Pasta Month, National Pizza Month, National Apple Month, and National Popcorn Month. October is also a time for health and safety. Fire Prevention Week is next week (October 3-9), so be sure to get ready for your fire drill at both home and office. October is also National Breast Cancer Awareness Month and National Dental Hygiene Month.

Comments?

Comments and suggestions are welcome. Please email "info" at catherinechhood.net with your ideas.